Discovering Hidden Gems: Analyzing Top NCAA Players for International Leagues

The NCAA, with its 32 conferences, is a fertile ground for scouting talented basketball players who can potentially make a mark in leagues outside the USA. However, identifying this talent can be challenging due to the varying levels of competition among these conferences. This article delves into the performance of players from the top six NCAA Division I conferences over recent seasons and their prospects in professional basketball.

Photo by dan carlson on Unsplash

The Analysis Process

Our analysis focused on the following primary NCAA Division I conferences:

• PAC12 (Pacific-12 Conference)

• SEC (Southeastern Conference)

• Big 12

• Big Ten

• ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference)

• BE (Big East)

We classified players based on their Efficient Offensive Production (EOP), considering both the average EOP and EOP per minute. From this classification, we identified the top 30 players. These lists were then compared to the NBA draft results of the analyzed years, revealing an interesting pattern.

Figure 1: Percentage of drafted players from our top EOP lists

As we see in Figure 1, the percentage of drafted players from our top EOP lists was relatively low. This discrepancy is primarily because NBA teams tend to draft freshmen (Fr) with perceived potential for growth, rather than seniors (Sr) who typically dominate the league in performance metrics but may not be seen as high-upside prospects. Most of the players on our lists are seniors. The Figure 2 shows the distribution of the drafted players according to their class.

Figure 2: Number of drafted players for each class

Are the senior undrafted players on our list not good players? Not at all. It’s just that NBA teams have not considered them for different reasons. Many undrafted players from our lists have successfully transitioned to significant roles in international leagues.

Season-by-Season Undrafted Players Analysis

Let’s analyze the undrafted players on our lists by mentioning in which league they have played in the 2023-2024 season.

2017-2018:

• 16 out of 31 undrafted players played in top international leagues (Spain, Japan, China, France, Lithuania, Russia, Italy, Turkey, and Australia). Euroleague player: Markus Howard, leading scorer in the Euroleague.

• 3 players with NBA contracts: Jordan McLaughlin, Dean Wade, Omer Yurtseven.

2018-2019:

• 19 out of 28 undrafted players joined top international leagues (Spain, China, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Israel, Turkey and Germany). Euroleague players: Markus Howard and Tyrique Jones.

• 1 player with NBA contract: Max Struss.

• 1 player with G-League contract.

2019-2020:

• 14 out of 19 undrafted players moved to significant international leagues (Spain, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Japan, China, Adriatic League and Lithuania). Euroleague players: Markus Howard, Tyrique Jones, Daniel Oturu and Oscar Da Silva.

• 1 player with NBA contract: Omer Yurtseven

• 2 players with "Two-way" contracts.

2020-2021:

• 7 out of 25 undrafted players played in major international leagues (Adriatic League, Spain, Greece, Israel, Turkey and Germany). Euroleague players: Moses Wright, Oscar Da Silva.

• 4 players with NBA contract: Austin Reaves, Jose Alvarado, Sam Hauser, Julien Champagnie, Eugene Omoruyi

• 5 players with "Two-way" contracts.

• 1 player with G-League contract.

2021-2022:

• 8 out of 22 undrafted players joined significant international leagues (Italy, Israel, France, Germany, Russia and Lithuania). Non Euroleague players. Notable players: Payton Willis, Trevion Williams and Azuolas Tubelis. We Will surely see some of these players in the Euroleague in coming seasons.

• 1 player with NBA contract: Javon Freeman-Liberty

• 7 players with "Two-way" contracts.

• 1 player with G-League contract.

2022-2023:

• 6 out of 16 undrafted players moved to top international leagues (France, Italy, Germany, Japan, Lithuania and Adriatic League). Non Euroleague players. Notable players: Umoja Gibson and Azuolas Tubelis.

• 4 players with "Two-way" contracts

3 players with G-League contract.

After the draft, undrafted players are looking to enter the NBA via G-League. If they don’t achieve the goal of making it to NBA, they look for other “overseas” options. That is why there are more players of our 2017-2018 seasons list, than of our 2022-2023 season list, playing in the best international leagues. Surely within 2-3 years players from the 2022-2023 list will make the step to “overseas”.

Potential Players for International Leagues

Let’s see which players can make the step to “overseas” leagues by analyzing our lists of 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons. As potential players to excel in international leagues we have considered players who have played between 15 and 30 minutes in the G-League during the 2023-2024 season (players with G-League or Two way contracts). This is the list of the 6 players to consider for international leagues:

1. Oscar Tshiebwe

2. Terrell Brown Jr

3. Colin Castleton

4. Souley Boum

5. Adam Flagler

6. Jarkel Joiner

This is not to say that these players will be the best in international leagues. But it is a filtering method that can be very efficient.

Key Takeaways

1.      Draft Selection Trends:

-   NBA teams prioritize drafting freshmen players with potential, often overlooking senior players who have already proven their capabilities in college.

2.      Path to Professional Success:

-   Undrafted players often start in the G-League before moving overseas if NBA opportunities do not materialize.

-   The transition to top international leagues is usually gradual, often requiring stints in lower-tier leagues first.

3.      Value for International Teams:

-   These undrafted players, once overlooked by NBA scouts, frequently become key players in international leagues, including the Euroleague.

-   Both top and second-tier international leagues can benefit from these players, who use the latter as stepping stones to higher-level competition.

This analysis highlights the potential for international leagues to capitalize on the overlooked talent in the NCAA. By understanding the trends and pathways of these players, teams can better identify and nurture future stars.

Similarly, other NCAA conferences and the impact their players have on international leagues can also be analyzed.

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At Basketball Analytics Lab, we offer data analytics services to clubs, enabling them to enhance their performance without significantly increasing their budgets.

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