Home Sweet Home
“A man’s home is his castle.” Translated into the world of basketball, this suggests that teams play with more character when playing at home. But is this true? Let’s look at the impact of home games in the Euroleague.
For this analysis, we have examined Euroleague data from the 2008-09 season to the 2023-24 season. Figure 1 compares the percentage of home victories during these seasons.
The main conclusion of Figure 1 is clear: the percentage of home victories has shown an upward trend over the analyzed years. In the 2008–09 season, the percentage of home victories was 52.2%, while in the most recent season, this percentage rose to 64.6%. That's a significant difference.
Over the past nine seasons, the percentage of home victories has stabilized, except for the 2020-21 pandemic season, when the rate was 56.7%. That season, there were limitations on public attendance at the arenas, and the percentage of home victories dropped considerably. This decline demonstrates the importance of the pressure that fans can exert, both in boosting the home team’s performance and in limiting the visiting team’s performance.
Best Teams at Home
Let's see which teams have had the best percentage of victories at home. Teams that have participated in at least six seasons during the analyzed period (2008-09 to 2023-24) have been considered.
The standout teams are CSKA, Real Madrid, and Barcelona, which have performed very well in almost all the analyzed seasons. At the bottom are Alba Berlin, ASVEL, and Partizan, teams that have not had good overall performances.
To analyze the impact of playing at home, let’s look at the difference between the percentage of home wins and the total wins. In this way, we can identify the teams that perform best at home.
In this case, the teams that stand out at the top are Maccabi, Bayern, and Khimki, which perform considerably better when playing at home. At the bottom, we find Siena, Alba Berlin, and ASVEL. Both Alba Berlin and ASVEL are also at the bottom of the list of teams with the lowest percentage of home victories (Figure 2). Siena's position may be surprising. Siena is a club that competed at a very high level in the early Euroleague. Its performance was so high that it played virtually the same at home as it did away.
Home Victories for the Top 10
What percentage of home victories is needed to get into the Top 10 and ensure at least a play-in spot?
Figure 4 shows the average percentage of home wins and the minimum percentage of home victories for the Top 10 teams. The seasons analyzed start from 2016-17, when the league adopted the regular season format.
Overall, it can be said that a minimum percentage of home victories of 59.7% is needed to enter the Top 10. In a league of 18 teams like the current one, this equals approximately 10 matches. The average percentage of home victories for the Top 10 teams is 72.4% (approximately 12 matches in a league of 18 teams).
Conclusions
After analyzing the home Euroleague matches since the 2008–09 season, these are some conclusions:
Fans play an important role in the victories of home teams. In the pandemic season (2020-21), the percentage of victories decreased considerably due to the ban or restriction on fans' access to the arenas.
The teams that have benefited most from playing at home are Maccabi, Bayern, and Khimki, whose percentage of home victories is significantly higher than their total percentage of wins.
The percentage of victories required to enter the Top 10 and play at least in the play-in is approximately 60% (about 10 matches in a league of 18 teams).
This analysis can help teams set goals for home victories to aspire to enter the Top 10.
At Basketball Analytics Lab, we offer data analytics services to clubs, enabling them to enhance their performance without significantly increasing their budgets.
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