Olympic Games 2024 – Paris: Previewing the Teams
With the Olympic Games just around the corner, let's break down the key factors for each team.
Group A: The Group of Death
Often dubbed the "Group of Death," Group A features Australia, Greece, Canada, and Spain. While Canada might initially seem like the favorite, anything can happen in this competitive group.
Australia
Australia's roster is a blend of youth and experience. Josh Giddey is expected to solidify his leadership, a role he began in the 2023 World Cup (team-high usage rate of 32.8%). However, Australia’s success depends on the support Giddey gets from his teammates, especially with their three-point shooting. The team includes five players who have shot over 38% from three this season, each averaging more than one three-pointer per game:
Joe Ingles: 42.0%
Jack McVeigh: 41.5%
Josh Green: 39.4%
Nicholas Kay: 38.8%
Duop Reath: 38.5%
A key factor will be Giddey’s ability to improve his outside shooting, as opponents will likely target this area. In the 2023 World Cup, Giddey shot below 17% from three, though he improved to 33.1% during the 2023-24 season. Australia's fortunes largely rest on Giddey overcoming his shooting struggles, providing an excellent stage to silence his doubters from the past season in OKC.
Greece
Greece, led by NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and coach Vassilis Spanoulis, is another team to watch. Having an NBA MVP naturally elevates their status, despite it being Giannis' first Olympic appearance. However, Giannis' track record with the national team has been underwhelming:
World Cup 2014: 9th
EuroBasket 2015: 5th
World Cup 2019: 11th
EuroBasket 2022: 5th
World Cup 2023: 15th
Despite these results, Greece's strong pre-Olympic performance is a positive sign, with Giannis well-supported by Papagiannis, Walkup, and Calathes. For Giannis to perform at his best, Greece’s other players must excel in catch-and-shoot situations, which made up 27.3% of their offensive plays in the pre-Olympic games. If Greece's shooters can capitalize from the perimeter, Giannis will have more space to dominate with his physicality.
Canada
Adding Jamal Murray to the bronze-medal-winning core from the 2023 World Cup makes Canada a strong medal contender. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is anticipated to guide Canada, but he will be backed by several other players.
A crucial aspect of Canada’s success could lie in the offensive contributions of Dillon Brooks and RJ Barrett. Both performed exceptionally well in the 2023 World Cup. Their offensive performance will be crucial, as shown by their roles in that tournament.
Dillon Brooks: Brooks' primary offensive actions are catch&shoot, transitions, and catch&drive. His efficiency has been higher with Canada than in the NBA. If this trend continues, Brooks will remain a key player for Canada.
RJ Barrett: RJ Barrett: Barrett’s efficiency in catch-and-shoot situations with Canada is higher compared to his NBA performance. To maximize his impact, Barrett should focus on transition and catch&shoot scenarios, leaving pick&roll duties to Gilgeous-Alexander, Brooks, or Murray. Maintaining a 51% catch&shoot and 56% transition efficiency will make Barrett pivotal for Canada.
Spain
Spain could be the dark horse of Group A. Lacking NBA superstars, they rely on collective strength, led by Willy Hernangómez, Santi Aldama, and Lorenzo Brown.
One of the keys for Spain to advance to the quarterfinals will be their defense, particularly defensive rebounding. On average, 4.7% of plays in all pre-Olympic tournaments have ended in putbacks. However, in the four games Spain has played, 9.3% of plays of Spain’s opponents have ended in putbacks. Additionally, these actions are usually highly efficient.
This issue for Spain can also be seen in their Defensive Rebounds %. Out of the 24 teams that participated in the pre-Olympic stage, Spain ranked 18th in DReb%.
Given their physically stronger opponents, solving the rebounding issue will be a priority for coach Sergio Scariolo, who often uses zone defenses, complicating defensive rebounding efforts.
Group B: The Host and the World Champions
The group of the host team and the current world champion.
France
Host nation France boasts a roster full of talent, highlighted by Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama, the 2023 NBA Draft’s number one pick and the 2024 Rookie of the Year, is a unique talent.
A key factor for the team’s success will be coach Vincent Collet. Structuring the game around a unique player like Wembanyama presents significant challenges. Considering the criticism he received for the team's poor performance in the last World Cup makes his job even more difficult.
Bilal Coulibaly is another player to watch. Despite other players like Fournier and Yabusele bearing more offensive responsibility, Coulibaly's role as an outsider could be key. Known for his defense and transition play (1.08 points per possession this NBA season), Coulibaly can significantly impact France's success.
Germany
The reigning world champion arrives at the Olympic Games with the intention of making another strong showing. They have kept almost the entire roster intact, adding a key piece in Oscar da Silva. We'll see if they can replicate the level they displayed at the World Cup and contend for medals.
It's a balanced roster that combines strong defensive players with offensive specialists. Among the offensive specialists, last World Cup's MVP Dennis Schröder stands out. He is a versatile scorer, however, he sometimes struggles with decision-making.
In his last 11 games with Germany, Schröder handled the pick&roll in 39.9% of possessions, but his efficiency was low at 0.82 points per possession. On the other hand, he is a key player in isolation situations, scoring 1.43 points per possession.
In the Olympic Games, Schröder will need to deliver his best performance if Germany wants to compete for medals. To achieve this, Schröder should improve his efficiency in pick&roll handler situations or at least reduce the number of possessions involving this type of play.
Japan
Rui Hachimura is the star player of the Japanese team. The Lakers forward is the team's main reference and undoubtedly the player to stop. He might have the highest usage percentage in the tournament, as most plays will run through him.
Hachimura is extremely dangerous in transition situations with a very good three-point shooting percentage (41.8% this season). Another player to consider is Josh Hawkinson, a versatile player who can roll or pop in pick&roll situations.
Brazil
Recently, the Brazilian team eliminated Latvia in the pre-Olympic tournament held in Riga.
The key for Brazil is the duo of Marcelinho Huertas and Bruno Caboclo. The pick&roll between these two is highly effective, and opponents will have to work hard to counter it. Analyzing the pre-Olympic games and the friendlies they played in preparation, the pick&roll plays involving Huertas and Caboclo have had a shooting efficiency of 56.8% (considering only the finishes by the handler and roller).
For the Huertas-Caboclo pick&roll to be even more effective, other perimeter players must shoot efficiently from three-point range to create more space. Lucas Días and Yago dos Santos could be key players in this task. Since August 2023, Lucas Días has managed a 45.5% efficiency in catch&shoot situations, while Yago dos Santos has achieved 56.5%.
Group C: Team USA
The group of the top favorite, Team USA. Is this the new Dream Team?
Serbia
Serbia is one of the teams competing for medals. Their roster features exceptional players, most notably two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. However, other players like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic can also lead the team to victory. It's a diverse team capable of scoring in various ways depending on who is on the court.
What raises alarms for the team coached by Pesic is the Net Rating of two key players in the friendlies played so far:
Jokic: -17.6 points per 100 possessions in 3 games
Micic: -18.3 points per 100 possessions in 3 games
These players have had some of the worst Net Ratings on the team. While the sample size is too small to draw definitive conclusions, it does raise concerns. This may indicate the important role secondary players will need to play.
South Sudan
South Sudan was the biggest surprise of the 2023 World Cup, and they aim to show that their performance was no fluke at these Olympic Games. Their strong showing in the friendly against the USA is proof of this.
In general, South Sudan is known for playing well in transition and having good shooters in catch&shoot situations. In the lead-up games, Marial Shayok, a 28-year-old guard playing in China, stood out. He makes excellent decisions in transition (1.58 points per possession in games with South Sudan) and shoots well from three, hitting 47.9% on 4.4 attempts per game.
Another key player is Carlik Jones. Though he hasn't been as efficient in the preparatory games, he has the ability to score effectively. He's important with the ball in his hands, particularly in pick&roll and isolations situations.
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico managed to eliminate teams like Lithuania and Italy in the pre-Olympic tournament. However, in this competitive group, they might initially be seen as the weakest team.
They generate a lot of offense through pick&rolls, often looking for catch&shoot finishes (with Ortiz and Alvarado standing out) or finishes by the ball handler (notable players include Waters, Alvarado, and Howard).
Howard, Alvarado, and Thompson Jr. have all shot over 40% from three in the pre-Olympic and preparatory games, making them players to watch.
USA
Team USA is the heavy favorite to win the gold medal. The team is full of NBA superstars, led by LeBron James. This could indeed be a new Dream Team dominating the games.
However, their friendly game against South Sudan exposed some vulnerabilities. They struggled throughout the game and narrowly won 101-100.
The key issue in the game against South Sudan was three-point shooting. Team USA shot just 25% from beyond the arc on 28 attempts, while South Sudan hit 42.4% on 33 attempts.
To beat Team USA, opponents will need them to have an off day from three, but even then, victory is not guaranteed.
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