Playing Time Matters? The Path to the NBA Draft for European Players
Hugo González is widely considered as one of the top European prospects from the 2006 generation. As of October 9, ESPN ranked him 9th on their 2025 NBA Draft board—a promising spot for a player his age. However, the draft is still a long way off, and there's an entire season ahead that could reshape his standing.
One of the challenges González faces this season is his limited playing time with Real Madrid. Despite being on one of the best European players of his class, he has only appeared in two of Real Madrid’s first eight official games: against Bayern Munich in the EuroLeague and Bilbao Basket in the ACB. Across those outings, González has averaged 7:51 minutes per game; contributing 4 points, 1 offensive rebound, and 1 assist in the Bilbao contest.
Will NBA Teams Take a Chance on a Player With Limited Playing Time?
The key question is: will NBA teams be willing to take a gamble on a player who isn’t seeing significant court time? While González has showcased his talent in various youth tournaments, the NBA is a different beast. But we are not going to analyse Hugo's game ourselves; that is the job of expert scouts like Eurohopes, who have thoroughly analysed his game over the past few years.
We are going to analyse the last 4 NBA drafts of European players. They have followed three distinct paths: continuing to develop in Europe, playing in the NCAA, or heading to the NBL.
According to Figure 1, we see that while remaining in Europe or moving to the NCAA has been the most common path, the NBL option has gained popularity in recent years. There is no single “right“ path to reach the NBA. If you’re good enough and continue to grow as a player, NBA scouts will find you.
European players drafted in recent years have come from various competitive backgrounds. Some played for EuroLeague teams, while others came from top domestic leagues without European play. Many have moved to the NCAA, but the conferences they chose were completely different. Juhann Begarin (pick 45) for example, was drafted while playing for a second-division French team, Paris Basketball, before they moved up to Pro A.
Whether it's Europe, the NCAA, or the NBL, the most crucial factor is ensuring consistent development in a competitive environment.
However, one thing stands out: playing time. Of the 47 European players drafted in the last four years, only six averaged fewer than 18 minutes per game in their pre-draft season.
What’s particularly notable is that all six players had European competition experience, with four of them competing in the EuroLeague. This puts González in a somewhat similar situation. Georgios Kalaitzakis (pick 60) who averaged the fewest minutes may seem to be the most similar player. By most evaluations, González’s talent level is much higher, so the comparison with Kalaitzakis isn’t exactly parallel.
For those ranked in the first round, Usman Garuba (pick 23 in 2021) had the fewest minutes per game in his pre-draft season. Both Garuba and González share similarities—they're both Spanish talents developed by Real Madrid. However, Garuba played significantly more during his draft year, appearing in 86 games, something González is unlikely to match.
However, Garuba wasn drafted after his second post-U18 season, while González is expected to enter the draft after only one season. In Garuba's first post-U18 season, he averaged 15 minutes per game across 38 contests. Right now, González is far from hitting that mark.
What’s the Best Move for Hugo González?
Now, the critical question: is it wise for González to remain at Real Madrid with limited playing time? Or should his camp consider a loan move where he could showcase his abilities?
Looking at the data, only six European players who averaged under 18 minutes per game in their pre-draft season were drafted in the last four years, and just two of them were first-round picks. If this trend holds, González’s draft stock could take a hit as the season progresses unless his role with Real Madrid increases.
Possible Paths Forward for Hugo González:
1. Seek a loan to another team where he can get more minutes and demonstrate his potential.
2. Delay declaring for the 2025 Draft if his stock drops too far, and focus on continuing his development at Real Madrid.
3. Declare for the 2025 Draft, hoping to become an exception—an elite European prospect drafted high despite minimal minutes in his pre-draft season.
We’re not here to judge which path is best, but rather to highlight the trends seen in recent years among European prospects.
Could González’s Situation Influence Other Real Madrid Prospects?
As one of the brightest Real Madrid prospects in recent memory, González’s journey could serve as a reference point for younger players in the academy. If those players see that a lack of playing time might negatively impact González’s draft position, they might begin to explore other options, such as:
1. Playing for another European team where they can secure a bigger role.
2. Heading to the NCAA to continue their basketball and academic development, potentially taking advantage of NIL opportunities.
European teams are already openly discussing the difficulties of retaining young talent due to the NCAA’s NIL program. As we’ve seen, the number of drafted players who chose to stay in Europe rather than move to the NCAA in recent years is almost the same. The key factor may remain in the playing time. If European clubs don’t give their prospects significant minutes, the trend of players moving to NCAA or NBL could accelerate, weakening European basketball further.
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Very interesting article.
Here in Spain, young players when they finish their second junior year, 17/18 years old, are orphaned from a specific competition. They are not old enough for ACB and the logical path is NCAA or other European leagues where they can get a salary. I believe that any path is good, and if you are an excellent player you will be able to play at a professional level, but there is only one condition, you have to play minutes. It is better to be the number 1 player on a Polish team than number 12 on an ACB team.